Central banks run the show
One of the strongest forces pushing prices up is the amount of gold bought by central banks. Many countries are adding gold to their reserves to reduce their reliance on the US dollar and guard against global uncertainty.
Deutsche Bank expects these purchases to grow from 853 tonnes in 2025 to 1,053 tonnes in 2026. Demand in late 2025 was already among the highest ever recorded. This heavy buying means less gold is available for regular shoppers, including buyers in the UAE.
It also makes the market tighter, which usually supports higher prices. Deutsche Bank adds: “We see a likelihood of another year of above-model rate of growth in the gold price.”
While demand keeps rising, supply is growing very slowly. Global mine production is expected to rise only slightly to 3,715 tonnes in 2026, and recycled gold remains below past highs. When demand grows faster than supply, prices tend to stay firm.
What UAE shoppers can expect
If these forecasts come true, UAE shoppers could see gold around:
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Dh466 per gram at the lower end
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Dh525 per gram in the expected scenario
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Dh589 per gram if prices approach $5,000 per ounce
These would be some of the highest prices ever seen in the UAE. Jewellery would cost more, wedding budgets would rise, and saving through gold bars or coins would require bigger spending.
For shoppers who buy gold regularly — whether for weddings, gifts, or long-term savings — it may help to plan purchases earlier, especially if prices continue rising through 2025 and 2026.
The message coming from major banks is clear: strong global demand, limited supply and rising uncertainty are all working together to push gold higher. And for UAE buyers, that could mean noticeably more expensive gold in the next two years.
Justin is a personal finance author and seasoned business journalist with over a decade of experience. He makes it his mission to break down complex financial topics and make them clear, relatable, and relevant—helping everyday readers navigate today’s economy with confidence.
Before returning to his Middle Eastern roots, where he was born and raised, Justin worked as a Business Correspondent at Reuters, reporting on equities and economic trends across both the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions.